Philip Neustrom Theory

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= Dark Horse Candidate =

[[image(jw_stats.png, right, thumbnail, 350)]]

Of course, there are some other candidates for top dog. ["JabberWokky"] is growing at a fast rate as well, looking to cross 5,000 fairly soon, and leave the tired wimpy editors like ["JasonAller"] and ["PhilipNeustrom"] in the dust. It's only a matter of time.
 * Only edits made from within Davis should count for statistical purposes. --["JasonAller"]
   * So all the people who post from ["Java California"] don't count? For that matter, Philip's edits don't count? You just know that there are people on your tail who are going to nail #1 before you do. --["JabberWokky"]
     * Ok, Lets move it out from the ["City Limits"] to encompass anywhere you can reach with one day's drive. That puts you at about 481 edits, right? --["JasonAller" Mr. Stubby]
       * Look, jackass, your edits are mostly photos, which just means you poke around town and have a digital camera. It's digital masturbation. Besides, every photo counts as *two* edits, since you upload and then edit the entry, so you're only good for half of your count, putting me already '''ahead''' of you. Plus your new page count is just mostly just stubs. --["JabberWokky"]
         * and your coming along and adding {{{'''}}} and {{{'''}}} to bold the page name on my new pages counts as a contribution? Get real. You know I've always suspected that it was you behind the ["RobertMorris"] edits. --["JasonAller"]

present.jpgCurrent Data showing near-constant trendPhilip Neustrom is approaching 10,000 edits on the Davis Wiki. It appears, at his current rate of edits, that he will reach this number in about two months. However, in July 2006, Philip appeared to be two months away from reaching the same value. What happened? As each day passes, Philip does fewer and fewer edits, and in the last 8 months has been editing fewer and fewer pages, and as a result the milestone has always appeared to be several months away. The purpose of this page is to explain this strange phenomenon.

Samples of the User Statistics page archived by the [WWW]WayBack Machine were used to gather past statistics, and an almost-daily record of edits is currently being gathered.

And Philip is NOT allowed to edit this page to preserve the quality of future data.

The Philip Neustrom Theory

def. = There is a maximum possible number of edits that Philip Neustrom can make on the Davis Wiki.asymptote.jpgIs there a limit to the number of edits?

As he approaches this number, N, his editing rate decreases so that he approaches this number [WWW]asymptotically, but never actually reaches it. The main question is whether this theoretical maximum lies above, below, or is equal to 10,000. Secondarily, it would be useful to pinpoint the reason for this phenomenon, so other wiki denizens can accurately predict and anticipate when we should all congratulate him on reaching such an incredible number of edits.

Some Calculations

Snapshot of April 2005 December 2005-May 2006 July 2006-March 2007 Recent Data
Days 10 163 223 16
Edits 182 1,461 608 34
Edits/Day 18.2 9.0 2.7 2.1

[WWW]Just the graphed data, please.

Proposed Explanations

Feedback

Philip does not want to reach a certain number, perhaps 10,000, and so the closer he gets, the more he dissuades himself from editing. If true, then we may observe an increase in Philip's edits per day as he accepts that he may have to reach 10,000 edits someday. Seeing this page might cause such an acceptance of the inevitable to occur.

Philip Clones

A variant of this feedback hypothesis is that as his account gets closer and closer to 10,000, he utilizes clones - accounts that he has created and used over time, similar to Sockpuppets. Thus, he may actually be editing as frequently as before, but doing most of those edits with the other accounts.

Distraction

2006.jpgA closer look at 2006.Other projects are taking up Philip's time, and as time (t) increases, his number of distractions increases (or involvement in those distractions). Thus, his number of edits per day will continue to decrease. This explanation is compatible with the idea that there is an asymptote, and also the possibility that there is none at all. (There may be a maximum amount of distraction keeping his edits per day from declining below a certain threshhold.) It gains support from the fact that during the Summer of 2006, his edits per day first began to decline. However, there is a lack of data points during the fall of 2006 to determine whether this decline was actually sudden or gradual. If at some point one of these distractions end, we may see a sudden and sharp increase in his edits per day.

K-strategy

The Davis Wiki can only support a certain number of edits (K), such as how many members of a species can be supported by an ecosystem [WWW](click here for r/K selection explanation). As N approaches K, the rate of mortality of those edits gets closer to the rate of reproduction, and the population of edits approaches the maximum (K) more and more slowly. This explanation gets extra points for nuttiness, but it gains support from the fact that initially, Philips edits have been pretty constant at about 9-12 edits per day on average, and did not start its major decline until the edits were getting closer to the proposed maximum. If true, we may someday observe that if there is a major catastrophe or other wiki environmental change, Philip's edits may actually decline and approach a new value of K.

Dark Horse Candidate

jw_stats.png

Of course, there are some other candidates for top dog. JabberWokky is growing at a fast rate as well, looking to cross 5,000 fairly soon, and leave the tired wimpy editors like JasonAller and PhilipNeustrom in the dust. It's only a matter of time.

Some ways to Test the Philip Neustrom Theory

Will Philip Neustrom ever reach 10,000 edits? Discuss.

Note: You must be logged in to add comments



2007-03-19 15:36:53   If you look at [WWW]Philip's userinfo, you can get more data points. Just look at the "offset" attribute in the URL and count 'em up! —BrentLaabs


2007-03-19 15:41:46   Wow ... someone either has too much time on his hands or has a thing for Philip. —KaiTing


2007-03-19 15:44:58   LOL, too much time. I noticed last summer that he was close to 10,000, and then all of a sudden he wasn't going to reach it. —KarlMogel


2007-03-19 15:54:50   I nominate this page as the next featured page! Good times! —DavidGrundler


2007-03-19 15:57:56   I propose an experiment: we make a whole bunch of minor mistakes on a bunch of pages and wait to see how long it takes him to overcome the "slump" and hit those pages till it pushes him over 10k. —WesHardaker


2007-03-19 16:25:52   As a comparison, I'd recommend you do the same treatment to JasonAller. His contributions seem to be going at a steady pace, if not more rapid recently. This page is reminding me that someone should update the Wiki Demographics page. I have my old data file should someone want to use it as a startingpoint. —CraigBrozinsky


2007-03-19 16:35:28   I have noticed the gap between them get smaller. I'll take a look. —KarlMogel


2007-03-19 19:49:57   I don't think philip's edits can approach any value _asymptotically_ unless there can be a non-integral number of edits. Otherwise he couldn't go above 9,999 edits without reaching or passing 10,000. —KenjiYamada


2007-03-19 20:53:16   Shhh! Ahem, so you're saying that decimal edits are possible? Perhaps instead, an open editing window will sit on Philip's screen and get closer and closer to being saved without actually being saved. —KarlMogel


2007-03-19 21:34:48   Maybe Philip knew he couldn't hit 10k so at an early point he created a clone (Jason) to handle all other edits near the point he got to 10k. The question is, who's the third clone? Ok. I'm officially procrastinating other things if I'm coming up with theories like this. —WesHardaker


2007-03-19 22:43:03   Things can change aymptotically in natural systems all of the time. If temperature aysmptotically approaches a value, it still takes discrete steps as energy is quantitized. In terms of the clone, I nominate AlphaDog. Can you say for sure that AlphaDog isn't really Philip? —BrentLaabs

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