Is Global Warming really happening ?
During the 1980s, there was an innovative environmental theater group in Davis called “Just Above Sea Level.” They did interactive theater in parks and other unusual settings. Their name seemed to imply that our low elevation puts us at risk. Officially, Davis is listed on the CalTrans city limit sign as “52 feet” above sea level.
Some scientists are so troubled about the rapid rate of consistent increase in temperature at various sites around the world that they believe it is a trend which they call “global warming”.
Former Chair of the UCD Physics Department John Jungerman is an active member of the Union of Concerned Scientists. In 1983, at the peak of public concern about the threat of a nuclear war, Jungerman analyzed a nuclear war’s consequences to the atmosphere including a possible long term global winter.
Now Jungerman is troubled by the cumulative information arguing that the atmosphere and the earth below it is increasing in temperature at an increasing rate.
These are the facts:
There is something called a “greenhouse effect.” If you sit in a closed car in the sun, it will quickly become hotter than outside, due to the high energy rays entering through the glass windows and then bouncing around within the car, becoming lower energy rays and unable to leave.
The earth maintains a fairly consistent surface temperature over night because the atmosphere retains the energy as it bounces off clouds just like in a closed car.
During the 1970s, many different scientists observed increasing temperatures around the planet. They found that carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere had increased 30 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1800. And they established a high correlation between increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere and increasing average global temperatures.
Greenhouse gases like methane (CH4), CO2, and CFCs (chloroflorocarbons) like Freon 12 interact with ultraviolet light to release chlorine into the stratosphere, which interacts with the ozone (O3), forming O2. The ozone layer acts as a barrier to harmful rays; depleting the ozone means that the greenhouse heating is increased.
Measurements since 1955 at a major neutral mountain site in Hawaii, Mauna Loa, show a consistent rise in CO2. Only now the readings have to be checked to see if they are biased by increasing coal burning in China.
One hundred, twenty-seven glaciers in New Zealand have retreated an average of 40 feet a year this century, losing one-quarter of their area.
Antarctica has two plant species. The one that needs colder weather is dying off; and, the warmer weather plant is thriving like never before.
Data show that global average temperature has increased by 0.5 to 1.1 deg F in the last century. According to the National Climate Data Center (![[WWW]](http://wikispot.org/wiki/eggheadbeta/img/sycamore-www.png){kind=small}
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/) the record high temperatures through 1998 were 1.3 degrees F above the long-term (1880-1998) average, far above even recent record high levels. Data from the NCDC also indicates that U.S. climatic variables like temperature and precipitation have become more extreme in recent decades.
These statistics are based on land and ocean temperature data collected at monitoring stations around the world. These land-based measurements show a sharp increase in warming in the last 15 years, with many of the hottest years on record occurring during the 1990s.
In 1992, 90 atmospheric scientists meeting as the International Governmental Panel for Global Climate Change concluded that there will be a temperature rise of 1.5 deg C to 4.5 deg C if CO2 levels double, which will happen between 2030 and 2050 based on their model. To test their model, the scientists went backwards: 6000 years ago, the Sahara desert was predicted to be lush greenery, which fossil remains confirmed.
A four deg C increase in global average temperature will lead to a one meter increase in average sea level, creating extensive damage to coastal areas and inundating islands.
The consequences are significant: Today’s local forecast is for a high of 103 degrees F.
By 2030, Davis would have Fresno’s 115 degree summer days, and corn will be grown in Russia and Canada instead of the U.S. Midwest.
California will likely receive more winter rain and less snowpack, creating new water storage problems for agriculture, industry, cities, and fish. Most of nature requires intermittent infusions of water.
So what are the social and policy implications ? We are conducting a giant experiment with the climate of the only planet we have. The U.S. has a terrible problem in terms of per capita consumption of petrochemicals and production of greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide. From a theoretical standpoint it is important to cut back greenhouse gas emissions as a country.
More than that, in a famous if frequently forgotten study, petroleum geologist King Hubbard thoroughly analyzed potential oil deposit sites in the U.S. in 1956. He concluded that domestic petroleum would be discovered at a rate that reflects a bell-shaped curve. With the starting point of 1890, the U.S. had already passed the midpoint/peak of potential production by 1972.
This information became part of the popular culture during the OPEC oil crisis of 1973, when Hubbard’s quickly diminishing trend was confirmed. The U.S. is already at the ninetieth percentile of the curve, which means that our country will be completely dependent on foreign oil by 2020. At current rates, by then only Saudi Arabia will be able to export any oil at all. They will be in the position to determine who has energy, and given current dependence on fossil fuels, they will determine who has power, giving them perhaps ultimate authority. Perhaps it will become a Moslem century. Didn’t we have this conversation in 1973 during the OPEC oil embargo ?
At very least, this means the automobile-based economy will soon have to shift away from fossil fuels. As a country, we need to move to renewable energy and conservation strategies. As Jungerman stated in a letter to editor last summer, “Contrary to the alarmist economic predictions of a few, the U.S. can reduce its greenhouse gas emissions at overall economic savings, or a very modest cost through the implementation of sustainable energy policies”. Remember, what physicists study is the efficient use of energy.
In 1991, the United Nations held its Second Conference on the Environment at Rio de Janeiro, and most major industrial countries supported the resolution to cut greenhouse gas emissions, except for President Bush who directed the United States not to support it. In 1997, scientists met at Kyoto, Japan and developed a set of accords to implement Rio. U.S. Senate Foreign Relations chair Jesse Helms is staunchly opposing Clinton Administration efforts to endorse the Kyoto goals which should force the most cutbacks upon the U.S. because we are the bulk of the problem.
If Mayor Partansky actually cared about the environment, she would devote her public energy to establishing hourly trains between Sacramento and Oakland, to cut Highway 80 traffic, greenhouse gases and pollution.
Davis needs a general plan which reflects the consequences of global warming. At the very least, teach your children to ride a bicycle.
In 1992, UCD Civil Engineering Professor Dan Chang gave a talk on depletion of ozone in the stratosphere which Jon Li videotaped; the next day Jon bought a bicycle helmet which he has worn religiously ever since to protect his bald head from cancer causing ultraviolet rays. Jon can be reached at jli@yolo.com.
