Users/MaxwellKappes

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pirate.jpgWho the fuck would actually elect this guy?Maxwell Kappes is totally the coolest person at the school if you exclude approximately 80% of the student body from the grading scale. He is majoring in Political Science - Public Policy with a second major in Applied Statistics. You've probably seen him around campus before; he is the guy who wears all of the weird hats.

Max is a transfer student from Santa Rosa Junior college and President of Davis Urban Gaming Group, an officer and co-founder of Davis Cards and Games and one of the main administers for Humans vs. Zombies. On a more serious note, he was a member of the Internal Affairs Commission and he ran for ASUCD Senate in the Fall 2012 ASUCD Election and won. He then ran for ASUCD Vice President with Armando Figueroa and won again, proving just how powerful hats are in ASUCD elections.

He is an iconoclast of sorts and hates everyone. He spends too much time on Daviswiki, but that is probably a good thing for a senator to do.

Max, as someone who likes Daviswiki (and minor vandalism of ASUCD pages) likes finding random pages. That being said, he knows the only reason you would be reading this page is because you are on a link binge and are probably quickly running out of ASUCD related links. To help solve that problem here are a few pages that I think start good, more obscure, wiki binges:
Cactus Corner

Or you can also just go here Jalisco Place

The Data War

Being super interested in statistics, he is constantly making voter models for ASUCD elections. In the Winter 2013 ASUCD Election he was challenged by Dylan Schaefer to create a turnout model. While Dylan's used demographics and campus affiliations to determine vote counts for candidates and was based off of data from all Choice Voting era elections Max's model was based primarily off of facebook data and only used the previous two elections as a base. Dylan's model had an R2 of .19 and only predicted 5000 votes, while Max's had an R2 of .64 and was within 100 votes of actual turnout. Neither had a good record for calling winners though and are both very mad at Ryan Wonders for smashing their models into the ground.

However, it is well known throughout the land that Max is a big fat liar and makes up numbers to pretend to be superior. - DylanSchaefer

Well then Dylan, maybe you could make a good model. <3

All I know is that I made my numbers public before the election and you refused to. All of a sudden after the results were announced you claimed to have a very high r squared... SOUNDS FISHY. - DylanSchaefer

That is fair, but I assume you could trust me at least as far as you could throw me. The difference boiled down to my formula not being reliant on dummy variables. Since my model only operated using more recent elections I was able to get a better prediction because it reflects the current campaign environment (which is how many people you can get to vote for you through facebook) instead of your more demographically based model. When it comes down to it elections are different now. You can't win through hard work anymore, you can only win if you are popular.

MaxwellKappes's Statistics

Edits  Pages Created  Files Contributed  First Edit Date  Last Edit  Last Page Edited  
30723542012-04-03 21:09:432014-06-09 19:40:44Westwood Park

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2013-02-26 16:22:58   Regarding the edit on the Winter 2013 ASUCD Election page: Looking at Approval Voting with the Choice Voting data from ASUCD elections is a really inaccurate way of guessing how people would have voted with Approval Voting because Approval Voting gives equal weight to every vote. If someone ranked all 19 candidates in the last Senate election and you ran the data with an Approval Voting system it would give that 19th person they ranked an equal vote to the 1st person they ranked. I highly doubt that ~14% of voters in the last election actually approved of all of the candidates but when you run the data under an Approval Voting system, that is exactly what the results will tell you. The "Top 6" or Block Voting guesswork on all these election pages is flawed as well, but far less than looking at Approval Voting and it was the old system used so it has some precedent for comparison. —JonathonLeathers


2013-03-05 15:24:48   Thanks. I just got OpenSTV so I've been running a lot of stuff. I assumed it only counted the a number of votes equal to the seats given. —MaxwellKappes


2013-03-17 10:00:55   There is a random page include, if you like finding random pages —StevenDaubert


2013-03-17 18:13:46   I know, I just felt like adding a random page link on my page. OMG I have comments on my page I feel important! —MaxwellKappes


2013-03-17 21:52:03   I was going to leave a comment about my own ASUCD Election model but, eh, it got too long. So it's over here: How to Predict an ASUCD Election. Cheers! —BrentLaabs


2013-05-07 02:29:45   Just wanted to say thanks!

also
The ASUCD sleeping bag photo is an apt summation that encompasses the true feel of student government —StevenDaubert

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